New poll suggests one in five Albertans would vote to separate

Although Alberta separatists are organizing for an independence referendum and say they’re gaining momentum, a new poll released Friday suggested that only one-fifth of Alberta respondents would vote to separate.

The Pollara Strategic Insights survey found that 19 per cent of the 1,000 Albertans surveyed say they would vote for separation, and 75 per cent would vote against it. 

“It's always a bit surprising when we do this to see how low the separatism vote is, because it does often feel like it's bigger, because I think largely of the influence that sentiment has in Alberta,” said Matt Smith, the western executive vice-president with the polling firm.

“It's a very vocal minority and a very quiet super majority,” he said, adding the firm’s data consistently shows support has never been above 20 per cent.

Elections Alberta recently approved the group’s proposal for a citizen initiative petition on independence. 

The group began collecting signatures earlier this month. If the petition receives at least 177,732 approved signatures by May, Albertans could vote on a separation referendum as soon as this fall.

The Pollara survery’s findings also suggest that 43 per cent of Albertans feel the province’s interests are represented well by federal decisions.

While that number indicates the majority of respondents still feel alienated, Smith said it is higher than in September when only 37 per cent felt Alberta was represented at the federal level.  

The poll was conducted from Dec. 5 to Dec. 20, 2025.

As an online survey, a margin of error does not apply. However, a margin of error for a comparable probability sample would be plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Pollara poll comes a day after the release of another survey, conducted earlier this month by Vancouver-based firm Research Co., that suggested considerably stronger support for separation – in particular among younger respondents.

It found 31 per cent of the 703 Albertans it surveyed at least support the idea of the province going its own way. 

That poll, conducted between Jan. 4 and Jan. 6, also found 40 per cent of young adults between the ages of 18 and 34 support an independent Alberta, indicating young people lead the way in supporting the movement.

However, the Pollara survey suggested that only 16 per cent of young people would vote for Alberta to leave Canada.

Like the Pollara survey, a margin of error does not apply for the Research Co. survey. However, a margin of error for a comparable probability sample would be plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Separatist group says movement is growing 

Jeffrey Rath, co-founder of separatist group the Alberta Prosperity Project, believes the Research Co. survey better reflects what he’s seeing on the ground, though he’s generally skeptical of such polls.

“I don't think any of these polls are truly reflective of our support or where we're at,” he said.

Mitch Sylvestre, the separatist group’s CEO, acknowledged his group still has a lot of work to do to bolster enough support for separation to win a referendum. But he said efforts are underway, including weekly town halls across the province and recruiting canvassers for door-knocking campaigns. 

A different citizen-led petition for a referendum to keep Alberta in Canada — known as the “Forever Canadian” petition — recently received more than 438,000 signatures.